Ripple effect

The lowest gas price at this Fort Myers station was $3.51. ERIC RADDATZ / FLORIDA WEEKLY GAS PRICES ARE ON THE RISE — AGAIN — yet local drivers seem to be taking a wait-and-see attitude before dramatically altering their driving patterns. Per gallon prices have increased 25 cents since the beginning of the year, and some experts are predicting gas to surpass the $4 mark by Memorial Day — a price not seen since July 2008, when prices reached an all-time high of $4.10 in Naples and $4.03 in Fort Myers.

Per-gallon prices for regular gas in Southwest Florida, as of Sunday, ranged from a low of $3.41 at Sam’s Club in Fort Myers to a high of $3.69 at the BP station at Davis Boulevard and SR 951 in Naples, according to GasBuddy.com, a Tampabased company that tracks from-the-pump prices reported by spotters throughout the U.S. and Canada.

The American Automobile Association, which surveys more than 100,000 self-service stations daily for its fuel gauge (fuelgaugereport.com), reported a national average of $3.385 per gallon, a fraction-of-a-penny decrease in a week. The organization also reported Florida’s average at $3.48 per gallon.

The lowest gas price at this station in Fort Myers was $3.48. ERIC RADDATZ / FLORIDA WEEKLY Gas prices averaged about $3.25 locally on Dec. 31, but have steadily ticked up to $3.50 in just three weeks. Southwest Florida drivers haven’t paid this much for gas since September 2011, the last time prices hit $3.50. Today’s prices are still 50 cents less per gallon than they were in 2008, when drivers plunked down $65.60 to fill the average car’s 16-gallon tank.

Some experts are predicting gas to hit $4.20 nationally by Memorial Day — an outcome that could stall economic recovery, according to Gary Jackson, direct of the Regional Economic Research Institute and an assistant professor of economics at the Lutgert College of Business at Florida Gulf Coast University.

“Higher oil prices tend to create an inflationary pulse through the economy,” he says.

Key to the effect locally and nationally is the cause, says Dr. Jackson. A number of factors can influence prices paid at the pump — from a hike in crude oil to increased demand from emerging nations like China and India.

“A rise in oil prices has the potential to slow down recovery,” he says. “A couple of what I would call unexpected events could derail our recovery.”

Those two wildcards include sovereign debt issues facing Greece and Italy and the threat by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for 17 million barrels of crude oil a day.

Tensions in the Middle East impacting gas prices is nothing new. Prices rose last year following unrest in Libya, peaking locally at $3.98 per gallon in Naples and $3.92 in the Fort Myers area in early May.

Even economic recovery can up prices.

“If the Federal Reserve’s forecast for next year is correct and there is the growth its predicting, it creates more demand for oil and gasoline,” Jackson says.

Despite the quarter-on-the-gallon increase this year, Meals on Wheels programs in Naples and Port Charlotte have not lost any of their drivers, volunteers who are not reimbursed for mileage.

More than 200 volunteers with the Naples organization, operated by St. Vincent de Paul, log 34,200 miles a year delivering warm meals to shut-ins five days a week. Most donate one day a week, using their own vehicles and filling their own tanks – with no compensation, says Paul Brigham, executive director.

“We have a really special group of volunteers,” he says. “Their commitment is very, very strong.”

That commitment never falters, even when gas prices start rising — or when they topped $4 as they did nearly four years ago.

“So far none of the volunteers have offered gas prices as a reason for quitting,” says Andy Wallach, who organizes St. Vincent’s Meals on Wheels routes on Marco Island.

He typically fills in for one or two regular drivers each week. “I’m always conscious of the price of gas and keep my eye out for the least expensive,” says Mr. Wallach. “I would never not do it if the price got really high but I certainly would notice it.”

“Not many things effect the pocket like the price of gas,” adds Mr. Brigham. “We’ve had no fallout. Our volunteers are still volunteering.”

Gas prices can, however, affect the charity’s pick-up routes. St. Vincent de Paul uses its own trucks to collect furniture, appliance and food donations. “We’ll tighten up our routing and doublebacks,” he says. “A few summers ago, when gas prices spiked, people started donating money to pay for our gas. It was nice.”

Meals on Wheels of Charlotte County operates 13 delivery routes daily and one of their volunteers drive another 20 from his home to the meal distribution site, says Mary Howard, executive director. “For him, it’s probably a good 70 miles, including the route.”

Daily, volunteers rack up 410 miles delivering about 220 meals. Routes average about 32 miles, says Ms. Howard. “We haven’t lot a single volunteer because of gas prices. They’re so loyal,” she says. “A couple have mentioned they’re tightening their belts.”

Prolonged spikes will ultimately force businesses to re-evaluate their practices and the fuel economy of their fleet, says Dr. Jackson. In recent years, some industries have passed along the added costs as surcharges for everything from pizza and package delivery to checked baggage fees.

“We talk about this in class,” says Dr. Jackson. “High gasoline prices might nudge people to more fuel-efficient automobiles and trucks and hybrids. From the standpoint of an economist looking at this, in the short run there is not a lot you can do. In the long run, businesses will look to substitute capital; it’s going to more expensive but provides a cushion against higher prices.”

Federal Express made the move to hybrid and all-electric vehicles a few years ago and has improved its fleet’s overall fuel efficiency by 15 percent — well on its way to a 2020 goal to improve efficiency by 20 percent.

“Our all-electric and hybrid-electric fleet has logged over 9.5 million miles — 20 times to the moon and back — saving approximately 276,000 gallons of fuel and reducing our CO2 emissions by nearly 2,800 metric tons,” Deborah Willig, who heads the company’s environment media relations, wrote in an e-mail.

Ironically, rising oil prices can also create jobs, enticing businesses to hire employees specifically to keep costs from rising, says Dr. Jackson.

“The price of oil really does impact everything.” ¦

Gas prices

*Prices as of Sunday, according to GasBuddy.com